Analysis: The understandings with Iran may give Trump the victory image he wanted, but they leave the nuclear program intact, Hezbollah’s future unclear and Israel’s freedom of action increasingly dependent on Washington

The understandings reached between the United States and Iran, which are expected to be signed at a ceremony this coming Friday, are not a historic agreement, and certainly not a new nuclear deal. They are mainly an American attempt to stop a war that Trump no longer wanted.

After months of escalation, damage to energy prices, domestic political pressure and fear of a wider regional entanglement, the U.S. president needed an exit. Now he is presenting it as a victory. From his perspective, he has a story to sell the American public: He used force, Iran was frightened, Hormuz will reopen, Tehran promised not to pursue nuclear weapons and, above all, the war will end.

But behind the grand declaration lies a far more complex reality. Most of the difficult issues have not been resolved. The nuclear program has not been dismantled. The fate of the enriched uranium remains disputed. Oversight is unclear. Sanctions and frozen funds are at the center of disagreement between the sides. The question of Iran’s proxies, led by Hezbollah, has also been pushed into dangerous ambiguity.

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