More than six months since Israel and Hamas exchanged prisoners, another deal seems to be in the making.

According to a recently revealed proposal, presented by US President Joe Biden on May 31, there will be a complete halt to the war in Gaza, with Israel withdrawing its troops from populated areas and allowing Gazans to return to their homes in the north of the enclave. Israel would also facilitate an increase of humanitarian aid to the impoverished strip. In return, it would see the release of some of its hostages: those living and those dead.

The Biden administration believes that if the first stage proves to be successful, the two sides could go to implementing the deal’s second stage – a permanent end to hostilities and the release of the remaining living hostages.
Deal around the Corner?

That same plan also presupposes a major reconstruction plan for Gaza, which would only take place at a third stage.

“It seems that right now there is a more than a fifty-fifty chance that the deal will go through,” said Amir Oren, a Tel Aviv-based political analyst. “First of all, Netanyahu cannot say ‘no’ to Biden, especially because it was his own offer from the start, and especially if he wants to go to the Congress and address it in a joint session. And, secondly, public pressure keeps on growing, with evidence showing that the military pressure on Hamas did not get our hostages back,” he added.

But Netanyahu might tilt to accepting the deal also because of strong American pressure, the analyst believes.

“Biden doesn’t want to see any additional flare up,” said Oren, suggesting that if the war in Gaza continues, another conflict — one with Hezbollah in the north — might erupt, and that “could very well leapfrog over into an Israeli-Iranian war.”

“We shouldn’t forget that Biden is facing the nominating convention of the Democratic Party, and then, in November, the presidential campaign.”

“There is a lot of resentment in the left wing of the Democratic Party regarding what’s happening in Gaza, so a deal is a selling point for him. For him, it is almost crucial that when he gets to the November elections, there will be peace and quiet in Gaza, as well as along the Israeli-Lebanon border.”

Dr Saad Nimr, an expert on Israel-Palestine relations based in Ramallah, agrees that this time around the US administration is applying plenty of pressure on Israel to force it to reach a deal.

This is not only because of the mass demonstrations on campuses across the US, or the dissatisfaction with Biden’s policies within his own political party. It is also because of the mounting pressure coming out from America’s staunch allies in Europe.

In the end of May, three European states — Norway, Spain and Ireland — recognized Palestine despite the pressure applied on them from the US not to do so. On Tuesday, Slovenia followed suit and a number of other countries promise to take similar measures soon, showing they will be acting independently of American interests.

“This is a serious blow to Biden’s foreign policy and he wants to save face ahead of the elections. But will these outside factors be enough to force Israel to stop its war? I am not entirely sure,” said Nimr.

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