Governments are rushing to secure supplies of critical crop nutrients ahead of spring planting, as the Middle East war chokes off the flow of commodities and amplifies fears of a global food crisis.

Fertilizers exemplify the tight link between energy and food prices, underpinning harvests worldwide. The Middle East is a vital supplier, rich in both mineral reserves and the gas needed to produce nutrients for staples like corn, wheat and rice. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, shipments have ground to a halt as Iran, the US and Israel continue to exchange strikes on energy infrastructure.

In turn, prices of urea — the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer — have surged, with phosphate supplies also at risk. Much of global stock is tied to the Persian Gulf, and panic is spreading across major agricultural economies.

Top exporters China and Russia are curbing some crop nutrient sales, while the US is loosening shipping restrictions to facilitate domestic flows. India, the largest urea buyer, is scrambling for supply and weighing a tender. Greece and France have expanded financial support for farmers, and in Africa, Ghana has rolled out a free fertilizer program.

“Farmers should not bear the burden of any crisis,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Tuesday in Parliament, where he addressed the Middle East conflict and announced efforts to shore up fertilizer reserves. “The government stands with them.”

Rising fertilizer prices could push food costs higher, just as inflation in agricultural goods had started to ease after years of shocks — from the pandemic to the war in Ukraine and extreme weather. Typically excluded from core measures, they have challenged central bankers. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned of renewed price pressures as policymakers held rates steady this month.

At the same time, countries are moving to shield farmers already hit by weak crop prices, high input costs and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Competition for supplies is intensifying. Earlier this month, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Venezuelan fertilizers to “ease the impact on American farmers,” according to White House spokesperson Anna Kelly. Colombia’s state-owned Ecopetrol SA is seeking access to the same stock and considering a bid for Monómeros, a key plant on its Caribbean coast. 

Further south, Brazil is ramping up purchases from Morocco and Gulf countries while exploring a joint fertilizer and energy project with Bolivia, according to a senior Brazilian official. A law reducing taxes on chemical inputs for fertilizer was also sanctioned recently, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services said in a note.

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