The real question is not only whether Israel wants normalization with Saudi Arabia – but how far Trump is willing to press both sides to achieve it.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is not known for subtlety. Last month, he lived up to that reputation.

“If Saudi Arabia tells us ‘normalization in exchange for a Palestinian state,’ friends – no thank you. Keep riding camels in the desert in Saudi Arabia, and we will continue to develop with the economy, society, and state, and the great things that we know how to do,” he said at a conference.

Were the Saudis inclined to respond in kind, one could imagine a senior adviser in Riyadh muttering something along the lines of: “If Israel expects normalization without a pathway to a Palestinian state, then no thank you. Let them keep drowning in their political chaos – we’ll keep building megacities out of the desert.”

A fictional line, yes, but one that captures a deeper truth: Smotrich may treat normalization dismissively, but for much of Israel’s security and diplomatic establishment, a breakthrough with Riyadh is the crown jewel. For Saudi Arabia, however, Israel is not the crown. The real prize lies elsewhere – in Washington, not Jerusalem.

That is the unspoken backdrop to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House on Tuesday, his first in more than seven years and the first since the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Israel sees normalization with the Saudis as the “big one,” the key diplomatic breakthrough that would reshape Israel’s place in the region. Riyadh sees it as an optional add-on.

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