As President Donald Trump warns of “zero tolerance” for narco-states in America’s backyard, China is tightening its grip on Venezuela — a high-risk economic and political bet that could soon collide with U.S. power.

U.S. defense officials confirmed to Reuters last month that a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group had entered the Southern Command region, which covers the Caribbean and the northern coast of South America, to monitor narcotrafficking routes linked to Venezuela’s military leadership.

The Pentagon said the arrival of USS Gerald R. Ford, carrying more than 4,000 sailors and dozens of tactical aircraft, would “bolster US capacity to detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities.” It added that the mission aims to “degrade and dismantle transnational criminal organizations.”

Within weeks, Venezuelan officers were reportedly training for guerrilla-style defense against a possible U.S. strike — an acknowledgment, according to Reuters, of “rising anxiety inside Caracas.”

Into this standoff, Beijing unveiled a “zero-tariff” trade agreement with Caracas at the Shanghai Expo 2025, announced by Deputy Minister for Foreign Trade Coromoto Godoy. Venezuelan officials said the accord covers roughly 400 tariff categories, removing duties on Chinese and Venezuelan goods.

While final implementation details remain pending verification, the goal is clear: Beijing is moving fast into a sanctioned economy that Washington has sought to isolate.

“This really looks like China is going to completely take over the Venezuelan economy,” said Gordon Chang, an expert on China’s global trade strategy. “It’s going to decimate Venezuela’s local industry.”

“Venezuela basically sells petroleum to China and very little else,” he said. “China, of course, is a manufacturer of many, many items. Venezuelan manufacturing is not going to experience a renaissance anytime soon — it’s going the opposite direction.”

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