It’s important to recognize that world orders are nothing new.

World orders have long been the frameworks through which major global powers set the rules of the game. They define the structure of international political relations.

Thinking in terms of world orders requires zooming out entirely—taking the geopolitical view from 40,000 feet.

On a smaller scale, it’s similar to how the most powerful criminal organizations in a city—such as mafias and street gangs—form agreements to divide their activities and territories among themselves.

Eventually, though, these arrangements always break down, leading to violent power struggles until a new agreement is reached, reflecting the shifting balance of power.

A similar dynamic is at play with the most powerful countries, world orders, and world wars.

You can think of world orders as epochs—distinct historical periods marked by evolving global power structures.

Peace of Westphalia (1648 to 1803): This agreement ended the Thirty Years’ War and established a framework for European international relations for over two centuries by maintaining a balance of power among major European states. It involved the Holy Roman Empire, Spain, France, Sweden, the Dutch Republic, and various German territories. This world order persisted until the Napoleonic Wars disrupted the balance, necessitating a new international arrangement.

Congress of Vienna (1814 to 1914): The military defeat of Napoleon I led to this world order, which cemented Britain as the dominant global power. The Congress of Vienna set the foundation for European politics until the onset of World War 1 in 1914.

Treaty of Versailles (1919 to 1939): The victors of World War 1 established this world order, introducing institutions like the League of Nations. However, it collapsed when Germany, Italy, and Japan sought to overturn it and impose their own world order during World War 2.

The Current US-Led World Order (1945 to Today): The victors of World War 2 created the current world order with the US as its leader. This system includes institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund—all headquartered in the US. This world order has largely been unipolar, with the US exerting significant influence over international policies and decision-making.

World War 3

While many don’t realize it, World War 3 is already underway.

Let me explain…

Total war between the world’s largest powers that reshuffled the international order defined the previous world wars.

However, with the advent of nuclear weapons, total war between the largest powers today—Russia, China, and the US—means a nuclear Armageddon where there are no winners and only losers.

That could still happen despite nobody wanting it, but it’s not the most likely outcome.

World War 3 is unlikely to be a total war between the world’s largest powers, like the previous world wars.

Instead, the conflict is playing out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological warfare, deniable sabotage, and information warfare.

In that sense, World War 3 is already well underway, though most fail to recognize it.

Russia, China, and their allies are seeking to reshape the US-led world order that has been in place since the end of World War 2.

While they resent US dominance, both Russia and China hold a position—albeit a subordinate one—within the current system. They have permanent seats on the UN Security Council and are members of key international institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and WTO.

Unlike Germany and Japan in World War 2, Russia and China do not appear intent on completely overturning the current world order. Doing so could invite nuclear Armageddon. Instead, they aim to shift the balance away from US dominance to a multipolar world where they wield greater influence.

The conflict is playing out just below the threshold of direct military conflict. Nevertheless, it is a high-stakes struggle among the world’s major powers to determine the future world order, just as in previous world wars.

This is World War 3. It’s happening right now and unfolding rapidly.

In fact, World War 3 has been ongoing for over a decade.

While WW3 lacks an official starting date, two pivotal events in 2013 and 2014 signaled the beginning of this global struggle between Russia, China, and the US to reshape the world order.

The first was the rise of Xi Jinping in March 2013. It quickly became evident that China was no longer content with being a junior member of the US-led system. Instead, Beijing sought a role commensurate with its power—at minimum, equal to the US, if not the world’s dominant force.

The second was the US-backed coup in Kiev in February 2014, which led to the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian government and its replacement by a pro-US administration.

Ukraine is Russia’s most vital neighbor—both culturally and strategically. Slavic nations, including Russia, trace their heritage to the Kievan Rus’, a federation of tribes centered in present-day Ukraine that existed from the late 800s to the early 1200s.

Ukraine is also of immense geopolitical value. For years, US strategists have pursued the idea of integrating Ukraine into NATO, a move that would significantly weaken Russia’s military position and further isolate Moscow—an appealing prospect for those favoring a unipolar world.

After the 2014 coup, Moscow became convinced that the US was determined to bring Russia under its control. In response, Russia saw no choice but to push back—primarily by aligning with China and other nations to shift the world order from unipolar to multipolar.

I believe these two events marked the beginning of a global struggle among the most powerful nations to reshape the international order—World War 3.

Since then, the conflict has only escalated and may soon reach a tipping point that changes everything.

The graphic below (click to enlarge) maps out the timeline of recent world orders and world wars, offering a clearer perspective on their evolution—and where we may be headed next.

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