The Pacific Ocean’s ‘Ring of Fire’ is the most volcanically active area of our planet. Part of that ring (though, it’s really more a horseshoe) bisects the Pacific Northwest via the Cascade Range, and it’s here that one of the most active volcanoes of the world can be found. The honor goes to the Axial Seamount—an underwater peak located some 300 miles off Oregon’s coast—and scientists think it will erupt before the year is out.

Some volcanoes in the cascades can go centuries (or even millennia) without erupting, but the Axial Seamount’s frequency can be measured in just years. In fact, the volcano is so active that it became the site of the world’s first underwater volcano observatory, the New Millennium Observatory (NEMO)—though, it’s now monitored by the Ocean Observatories Initiative using a collection of submarine cables known as the Regional Cable Array. While being meticulously monitored since 1997, the volcano has undergone an eruption in 1998, 2011, and 2015, and it’s possible that the year 2025 could be added to the list.

Thankfully, the Axial Seamount is different from the Northwest’s other volcanoes, both in frequency and severity. According to Science Alert, the shield structure of the peak formed from thin lava, meaning that any eruption won’t be explosive but will instead ooze out lava and form new seafloor. This means there is no threat of a possible tsunami to the nearby coast.

The Axial Seamount is also not a part of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which is the danger area in which experts believe an earthquake ominously nicknamed “The Big One” will one day strike. Instead, it rests on the Juan de Fuca ridge further west, and its impending eruption likely won’t have any impact on the seismic activity of the subduction zone along Oregon’s coast.

Scientists at Oregon State University (OSU) and the University of North Carolina at Wilmington have actively studied how magma moves within the Axial system using bottom pressure recorders, according to a report by OPB. Every two years, scientists put out these bottom pressure recorders, collect the old recorders, and analyze the data. Bill Chadwick from OSU then uses the data to try to forecast when the Axial Seamount will erupt again.

In the summer of 2024, Chadwick reported on his blog that the rate of inflation within the Axial Seamount had been steadily increasing. An update in October of 2024 reported that the rate of inflation, as well as surrounding seismicity, has stabilized. “An eruption does not seem imminent, but it can’t do this forever,” Chadwick concluded. He stated that an eruption at the Axial Seamount could occur between now and the end of 2025.

Scientists hope that by continuously monitoring the Axial Seamount, they can learn more about other volcanoes around the world. Luckily, the Pacific Northwest’s most active volcano provides the perfect scientific laboratory.

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