People in the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the central and eastern Gulf coast need to complete preparations for major hurricane impacts by Wednesday night before hazardous conditions arrive by Thursday.

Key takeaways:
•A major hurricane is poised to make a quick landfall in the United States Thursday

•Time is running out to prepare for Helene’s arrival

•This will be “a large storm with life-threatening impacts” hundreds of miles away from where it makes landfall

A major hurricane is approaching the Gulf of Mexico. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that communities along the central and eastern Gulf coast only have a couple of days to prepare for the fast-brewing, quick-moving Helene’s arrival, which can potentially bring life-threatening storm surge and flooding rainfall, and destructive winds. The western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico has been an area highlighted by AccuWeather meteorologists as a hot spot for tropical activity since the middle of September.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a State of Emergency in advance of the brewing storm. Officials have issued a mandatory evacuation order for the barrier islands in Franklin County, Florida, which is located in the Big Bend area of the panhandle. A hurricane watch is in effect from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida, including Tampa Bay. A tropical storm watch is in effect for much of the balance of the Florida Gulf coast, including the Keys. Showers and thunderstorms quickly gathered over the weekend in the western Caribbean and adjacent land areas in Central America this past weekend. Localized flash flooding and mudslides will occur in areas surrounding the western Caribbean from Cuba to southeastern Mexico, Belize and Honduras. AccuWeather began designating the brewing system as a tropical rainstorm this past weekend to raise public awareness and issue its own track map to help people and officials plan ahead. On Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9.

Helene is currently packing 45-mph sustained winds with higher gusts.

Justifying the upcoming storm’s strengthening

“The combination of deep warm water (ocean heat content) and low disruptive breezes (wind shear), should assist in rapid strengthening when Helene moves over the Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday to Thursday,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. “Most likely, Helene will create its own environment and bring a surge in moisture to the currently dry air over the Gulf,” Rayno added. That moistening process was becoming evident in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

What do AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate?

AccuWeather is expecting Helene to make landfall as a major hurricane of Category 3 strength (sustained winds of 111-129 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. However, it could reach Category 4 status (130-156 mph) at some point while it is over the Gulf of Mexico.

At this time, Helene’s eye is most likely to track onshore along the Gulf Coast from the eastern tip of Louisiana to the central part of the Florida Peninsula. This landfall window will narrow once a strong storm center forms and begins to move along. The highest landfall probability at this time is somewhere along the coast of the Florida Panhandle–perhaps in the Big Bend area–late Thursday. A possible track in farther to the southwest, over the Florida Peninsula, could mean an earlier landfall Thursday.

However, people should not just focus on where Helene’s eye could make landfall. The storm will grow significantly in size with impacts that reach well out from the eye, especially on the eastern flank prior to landfall and for a time shortly thereafter. “This can be a large hurricane with life-threatening impacts such as storm surge and flooding rain hundreds of miles away from where the storm makes landfall – be sure to know the risks you can face in your community,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

There is a significant risk to lives and property with the upcoming hurricane in the U.S.

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