The Israel Defense Forces are increasingly focused on the prospect of a large conflict developing with Hezbollah in northern Israel. The chances for a major war increased on September 17 when thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded in Lebanon, killing more than two dozen people and wounding thousands. The Israel Defense Forces are increasingly focused on the prospect of a large conflict developing with Hezbollah in northern Israel. The chances for a major war increased on September 17 when thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded in Lebanon, killing more than two dozen people and wounding thousands. This was an unprecedented toll for Hezbollah to suffer in one day. The group has vowed to retaliate in a way that Israel cannot “imagine.” Israel has deployed brigades and divisions in northern Israel in strength. Throughout the war in Gaza, which began with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the IDF has focused on the possibility that a significant conflict will develop with Hezbollah. In fact, when Hamas attacked on October 7, many assumed it was only the opening move of a larger attack by Hezbollah and Iranian-backed proxies in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. For this reason, Israel has been on alert in the north for eleven months. One outcome of that alert was the decision in October 2023 to evacuate more than 60,000 Israelis from their homes. The evacuation took place along the line of Israeli communities that are on the Lebanese border.

The Israeli communities on the Lebanese border were aware of the Hezbollah presence across the border. They could see Hezbollah members patrolling and monitoring Israeli activity. Hezbollah didn’t seek to hide. It built barely disguised observation posts. Near Metulla, a bucolic border town that sits at the head of the Huleh valley, Hezbollah would fly large flags across the border so that Israelis could see their presence plainly. Therefore, when the war in Gaza began, it was assumed that Hezbollah posed a larger threat. The group has an extensive arsenal of rockets and missiles, estimated at more than 150,000 projectiles. It also has anti-tank guided missiles and a large number of kamikaze drones. These are similar to the designs of drones that Iran has exported to Yemen and Iraq and which Iran has provided to Moscow over the last several years. Hezbollah has chosen to carry out daily attacks on Israel using its arsenal. It usually launches a few dozen rockets and several drones and missiles a day. Most of these land within a few miles of the border. This has become a war of attrition. However, Hezbollah has vowed at times to increase the range and quality or quantity of its attacks. In July, a Hezbollah Falaq rocket killed twelve teens and children in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan. This was a major escalation. However, Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack. It’s likely it did not intend to kill so many people, and it knew Israel would then retaliate. Israel did retaliate, killing Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. This set in motion a new cycle of attacks, in which Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets at Israel on August 25, triggering an Israeli counter-strike.

The exploding pagers now may push the Israel-Hezbollah conflict into a new phase. Hezbollah has suffered a large number of casualties. It is not clear how many Hezbollah fighters have been impacted. However, the group announced thirty-eight fallen members. This means the group has now lost 478 members since it began its attacks on Israel. The death toll for the September 17 exploding pagers incident is now the largest single-day death toll for the group since October 2023. Hezbollah will want to respond.

Meanwhile, the IDF is preparing for this eventuality. The IDF has sent its 98th Division, which is composed of commandos and paratroopers, to the north to prepare for escalation. The 98th Division played a key role in fighting in Gaza. It was the division that took Khan Younis from Hamas in January and February 2024, in tough fighting that required the commandos and combat engineers to enter tunnels to root out terrorists. The 98th gained more experience in a number of raids into Gaza between May and July 2024. The 98th Division will join the 36th Armored Division, which the IDF had redeployed from Gaza to the north earlier this year. Along with these units, the IDF has the 91st Division, which is the main division responsible for securing the Israeli border with Lebanon. These units have reserve brigades that have been rotated into the north and also trained throughout the war to prepare for possible confrontation with Hezbollah.

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