Complying with U.S. interests often impacts Israel’s deterrence.

The Israel Defense Forces have been in an intense state of alert in recent weeks. Israel is anticipating a retaliatory attack from Iran, and/or its proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, allegedly in response to last month’s elimination of Hamas senior leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. For Israel and Israelis, this is an unacceptable situation. The 24/7 alert has taken a particular toll on the Air Force reservist pilots and ground crews, who must be away from their families and jobs. The overall Israeli economy, including the agricultural sector, has also suffered enormously. And, most critically, the war and the anxiety over the hostages continue to seriously impact the national morale and the psychological well-being of many in Israel.

As exhibited in previous situations, Israel would have launched a preventive strike against Iran and Hezbollah; however, in consideration of the Biden administration’s demand that it avoid doing so for fear that an Israeli strike might trigger a wider regional war, the Jewish state has refrained. The primary reason for Washington’s efforts to restrain Israel from acting is, first and foremost, the upcoming U.S. elections. The administration doesn’t want American personnel in the Middle East coming back in body bags. The United States currently has 2,500 U.S. soldiers in Iraq and 900 stationed in the northeast area of Syria. Iraqi Shi’ite militias, under Iranian guidance, have already deployed rockets in an attack on the Al-Asad airbase in Iraq’s Al-Anbar province, wounding several U.S. troops. Similarly, Shi’ite militias in Syria mounted drone attacks on American bases in the country.  

Secondarily, America has been constraining Israel from a preventive strike against Iran for purely political purposes. Vide President Kamala Harris, as she assesses her run for the U.S. presidency, understands that she must appease the pro-Hamas “progressive” wing of the Democrat Party, especially in Michigan, where the significant Arab-American community might abstain from giving the Democrat Party their support and vote. That position also holds true in other swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As the Biden-Harris administration is concerned, a regional war in the Middle East would work to the advantage of Russia and China. As the administration views it, attention on the Middle East is likely to divert attention from the war in Ukraine and enable Russia to become more aggressive. It might also encourage China to attack Taiwan. Moreover, arms for Ukraine would have to be transferred to the Middle East. The question then is: Why hasn’t the administration pursued a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia?

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