Why the world is due for MORE conflicts around the globe.

Speaking on Monday, Britain’s defence secretary Grant Shapps warned in a speech that the UK has moved out of a post-war state and is now facing a ‘pre-war world’.

His comments were made to highlight the need for Britain to increase its defence spending, but also demonstrated growing concern over current and future conflicts.

Relative peace in Europe was shattered in February 2022 with Vladimir Putin‘s invasion of Ukraine, and the Middle East once again found itself in crisis 18 months later after Hamas‘s October 7 terror attack on Israel, and Israel’s retaliation on Gaza.

And while these two conflicts have dominated the news cycle, others have also been wreaking havoc in Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Caucuses.

Meanwhile, there are mounting fears that the war in Gaza could spillover into the Middle East, and that China could invade Taiwan in the coming years – a conflict that has the potential to plunge the world into a third global war.

What’s more, Thursday saw NATO admiral Rob Bauer warn that the military alliance is bracing itself for an attack by Russia within the next 20 years.

If it feels like the world is seeing a spike in deadly conflicts, the data is there to back up that notion. Figures compiled by the Peace Research Institute Oslo show more battle-related deaths from state conflicts in 2022 than in any year since 1984.

The data shows that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war between the Government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) accounted for the majority of the more than 204,000 recorded war-related deaths last year.

It was also the first year that fighting in Europe accounted for more than 25,000 of the world’s deaths from state-based violence since the Second World War.

According to Justin Crump, an intelligence, security and defence expert and CEO of global risk analysis firm Sibylline, further regional conflicts can be expected in the years ahead, especially as climate change worsens and resources grow scarce, and as the world’s superpowers clash with fight proxy wars with Grey Zone tactics.

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