Escalating attacks on US troops and commercial shipping and incidents often involving Iran and its proxies are causing new concerns that Israel’s war in Gaza could widen into a regional conflagration with grave political and economic consequences.

With American service personnel increasingly in a dangerous firing line and with US and allied naval assets on high alert after multiple drone attacks, the deteriorating situation is leading to a tense holiday period for the White House.

The rising possibility of US combat deaths and the worsening security situation from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and stretching through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Israel represents an unwelcome new foreign crisis as President Joe Biden’s reelection year dawns. And it is becoming a petri dish for a new geopolitical trend — endless tests of America’s will and credibility by its adversaries and their proxies. Warnings by Israel that its war against Hamas in Gaza will last for months, despite US pressure for a ratcheting down of the intensity of the conflict, threaten to heighten the chances war could spin out of control and drag the US further in.

A flurry of dangerous escalations

Initial anxiety that a regional war could erupt after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel killed 1,200 and Israel launched its onslaught on Gaza didn’t immediately materialize even amid limited exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon on one of the most hair trigger fronts in the area.

But the pace of attacks and escalations in recent days appears to be gaining its own deadly momentum, fueling fears of further rising tensions.

— Biden ordered airstrikes on Monday against facilities used by pro-Iranian Kataib Hezbollah militia fighters in Iraq that the US accused of using a drone to attack Erbil Air Base, critically injuring one American service member. It was the latest attack by Iranian proxy groups against US forces in Syria or Iraq that are engaged in anti-terror operations.

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