It could have been immeasurably worse. But holding back from the brink in 2023 has simply deferred vast crises to 2024. The post-Covid world is exhausted, cash-strapped, but ultimately more fraught than for decades.

Overshadowing it all will be a flagging hyperpower, at best distracted with presidential elections, at worst tearing itself apart in voting disputes and political extremism.

The likelihood the United States will be occupied by its own traumas amplifies each risk. The geopolitical given of a US response will be absent, fuelling authoritarian ambition, or a radical upending of the global order. 2024 could make 2023 seem rational and sober.

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