It looks like El Niño could get even wilder this winter, with an experimental forecast saying it could hit top-tier “super” strength. This is the same type of El Niño that has caused deadly fires, droughts, floods, mudslides and more in the past.

But this time, it’s happening alongside an unprecedented rise in global temperatures, which scientists say makes it even more likely to see extreme heat waves and floods like we’ve seen in the last few weeks.

It’s hard to predict exactly when and where this El Niño could bring new weather extremes, since there’s no definitive link between it and climate change. Plus, there’s a lot of variability between El Niño events, making it hard to predict the impacts.

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