A lot of the talking heads on television seem to think that the threat of a recession has passed. So exactly why have these talking heads come to such a ridiculous conclusion? Well, they figure that if a recession hasn’t started by now we are probably in relatively good shape. In other words, they are speculating instead of conducting a hard analysis of the numbers. And the numbers are clearly telling us that economic conditions are rapidly getting worse. Of course the U.S. economy has been on shaky ground for quite some time. We had a recession in 2020, we had another recession in 2022 (although the Biden administration refused to officially acknowledge it), and now it appears that we are entering yet another one. In fact, if the Biden administration was giving us honest numbers, they would show that we are already in a recession right now. But it won’t be too long before things will be so bad that even the numbers given to us by the Biden administration will clearly show that we have entered a new recession.
It is just a matter of time.
There is one extremely important indicator that has been absolutely screaming that a recession is coming.
10-year bond yields have now been below 3-month bond yields for 212 trading days in a row, and such an inversion has “telegraphed the last eight recessions”…
But for 212 straight trading days, no matter what the indicators have said, the Treasury market has delivered what is widely understood as a starkly different message: The economy is veering toward a contraction, since 10-year yields have held below 3-month ones.
Such an inversion telegraphed the last eight recessions. And on Thursday, the market surpassed the 1980 record to hold that way for the longest consecutive daily stretch since Bloomberg’s records begin in 1962.
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
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